In easy phrases, Chelsea are enjoying nicely – however not nicely sufficient to be champions.

Chelsea’s assault, even after dropping Cole Palmer for greater than two months by harm, is on the identical degree as Arsenal’s.

Nonetheless, Arsenal’s unbelievable defensive statistics set them aside.

Traditionally, to win the title a workforce must common a +1 non-penalty anticipated targets (npXG) distinction per sport – that means you might be creating considerably extra possibilities than you concede on a constant foundation.

Solely Arsenal are attaining that measure of consistency to this point this season, with Chelsea needing to enhance defensively.

Having overwhelmed Liverpool, Tottenham and Barcelona this time period, Spain left-back Marc Cucurella stated his aspect’s inconsistency towards lesser opposition is a matter.

“I believe we dropped factors this season towards groups the place you anticipate to win,” stated the defender.

Curiously, Arsenal’s distinctive defence threatens Chelsea’s file for essentially the most clear sheets (25) and fewest targets conceded (15) in a Premier League marketing campaign, achieved below Jose Mourinho in 2005.

“You possibly can see they do not concede targets,” Maresca stated. “They’re defensively the most effective workforce and high of the league and Champions League, so they’re the workforce to beat.”

There are apparent stylistic similarities between the 2 groups – each play a affected person possession type that includes excessive urgent.

Yet one more key distinction is the standard of set-pieces. Arsenal are the most effective attacking set-piece workforce within the league, with 10 targets in 12 matches and the very best xG at 7.88. Chelsea, in the meantime, rank second with eight set-piece targets and have the fourth-highest xG at 5.44.

Regardless of Arsenal conceding just one fewer set-piece purpose than Chelsea – three in comparison with 4 – they’ve the second-best xG towards (2.04) when defending such conditions, whereas Chelsea are the second-worst (6.40). Regardless of an enchancment on final season, it might nonetheless be asking for hassle when Arsenal come to city.

Chelsea should additionally overcome an more and more poor file towards Arsenal on Sunday, with only one win of their previous 11 Premier League conferences. The Gunners are additionally unbeaten in six at Stamford Bridge.